2007 Economic Outlook Breakfast: 2007 Economic Outlook B'fast

CHALLENGING THE CONSENSUS VIEWS FOR 2007 Featuring Paul Kasriel, Senior VP and Director of Economic Research For Northern Trust Tuesday May 1, 2007 8 a.m. Hilton Northbrook 2855 Milwaukee Ave. $25 in advance; $30 at the door With rising energy prices, continuing weakness in the housing market and a volatile stock market, consumers are wary about what to expect in 2007. Will the Feds raise or lower interest rates? Will this be the year that the housing market recovers? Are concerns about inflation or an economic slowdown something to be concerned about? What about other unknowns that could inject uncertainty into the financial markets, including rumblings of strife around the world? The answers to these and other questions about the economy will be the focus of remarks by this year's featured Economic Outlook Breakfast speaker Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust's Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for making Northern Trusts's economic and interest rate forecasts, which have ranked in the top five of the Blue Chip Survey for accuracy in recent years. Kasriel is the author of a newsletter entitled "The Ecotrarian: Your alternative to the consensus." In a recent interview he said "I do often challenge the consensus because I have found that much consensus analysis is at odds with generally accepted basic economic theory. It is important to challenge the consensus because consensus forecasts usually are wrong at cyclical turning points in the economy's behavior. And it is at cyclical turning points when tactical investment decisions are most critical." Kasriel was recently awarded the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for having the most accurate economic forecast among Blue Chip survey participants from 2002 to 2005. The Northern Trust economic website was also listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. He is often quoted in the local, national and international media. Kasriel's economic analysis and financial market commentaries, written in his straightforward style, have won a loyal following in the financial community. The co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators that Move Markets, he is also a member of the American Economic Association of Business Economists and has served on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association. Kasriel began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago where he analyzed development in the money and capital markets. He was promoted and given the responsibility of organizing and leading the monetary policy briefings for the Bank's president. He is also currently a lecturer in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and has been a lecturer in finance at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. For further information or to sign up for the breakfast program, call the Chamber office at (847)498-5555 ext. 203.